TRACE-DS
Great-power war stays unlikely; Europe's eastern flank is already a lethal grey zone
Why read the 2026–27 elections as one story: they decide whether Europe meets Russian pressure on its eastern flank as one bloc or through partial coalitions. We put a great-power war before 2030 at 8% and a multi-theatre war at 3%, while lethal Russian strikes already reach the waters off Romania.
Published
Oct 29, 2026
Region
Global · Europe's eastern flank
Sources
486
Findings
5